This prolonged rainy spell is attributed to the “Madden Julian Oscillation” (MJO), a periodic atmospheric phenomenon.

BBMKG Region III Forecaster Brian Eko Permadi explained on Saturday, 21 December 2024, that the MJO intensifies rainfall when active during the rainy or dry seasons. Typically lasting between 30 and 60 days, the current MJO conditions are expected to influence Bali’s weather until January 2025. Bali's rainy season traditionally peaks in January and February.

Adding to the rainfall, a cyclonic weather system off northwest Australia and south of Indonesia has exacerbated the island’s wet conditions since mid-December.

The BMKG forecasts a mix of light to moderate rainfall interspersed with periods of sunshine and partly cloudy skies over the Christmas and New Year period.

Weather officials are urging the public and tourists to remain vigilant during outdoor activities. Sporadic extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall, lightning, strong winds, flash floods, landslides, and falling trees are possible during this season.

Beachgoers and watersports enthusiasts are also advised to exercise caution, as high waves ranging from 1 to 2.5 meters are anticipated in waters south of Bali.

For up-to-date weather conditions, BMKG provides three-day forecasts updated in three-hour intervals on their official website.